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bernanke essays At the Worksheets Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets Conference to Honor Milton Friedman, University of Complaint Letters, Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Worksheets Addition Three Digit. November 8, 2002. On Milton Friedman's Ninetieth Birthday. I can think of no greater honor than being invited to Formal Application - Template, speak on Worksheets Pdf & Digit Worksheets, the occasion of Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday. Among economic scholars, Friedman has no peer. His seminal contributions to economics are legion, including his development of the August Calendar Holidays, Excel permanent-income theory of consumer spending, his paradigm-shifting research in monetary economics, and Worksheets Three Digit his stimulating and original essays on economic history and methodology. Generations of graduate students, at the University of - Template, Chicago and Addition Three Digit Addition elsewhere, have benefited from his insight; and For Dinner | Cimvitation many of these intellectual children and Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit Addition grandchildren continue to this day to August Printable Holidays,, extend the Pdf & Addition Digit Addition Worksheets sway of Friedman's ideas in Of A Perfect Resume. Perfect Good Resume economics.
What is more, Milton Friedman's influence on broader public opinion, exercised through his popular writings, speaking, and television appearances, has been at least as important and Addition Worksheets enduring as his impact on academic thought. In his humane and engaging way, Milton Friedman has conveyed to millions an understanding of the economic benefits of Holiday – 14+ Free Psd Format Download, free, competitive markets, as well as the close connection that economic freedoms such as property rights and freedom of contract bear to Addition Worksheets Three Addition, other types of August 2017 Printable Calendar Holidays, & Word, liberty. Today I'd like to honor Milton Friedman by talking about one of Worksheets Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets, his greatest contributions to economics, made in close collaboration with his distinguished coauthor, Anna J. Schwartz. August Printable Template, Excel. This achievement is nothing less than to provide what has become the leading and most persuasive explanation of the Addition Worksheets Three Worksheets worst economic disaster in American history, the onset of the Great Depression--or, as Friedman and From Coloring Pages Schwartz dubbed it, the Great Contraction of Addition Three, 1929-33. Remarkably, Friedman and Complaint Schwartz did not set out to solve this complex and important problem specifically but rather addressed it as part of Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Digit Addition Worksheets, a larger project, their magisterial monetary history of the Complaint United States (Friedman and Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets Schwartz, 1963). As a personal aside, I note that I first read A Monetary History of the United States early in my graduate school years at M.I.T. I was hooked, and I have been a student of Template – 14+ Free Ppt, Psd Format, monetary economics and economic history ever since. 1 I think many others have had that experience, with the result that the direct and indirect influences of the Worksheets Worksheets Monetary History on contemporary monetary economics would be difficult to overstate. Of A Perfect Resume. Perfect. As everyone here knows, in their Monetary History Friedman and Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Addition Schwartz made the case that the economic collapse of 1929-33 was the product of the Holiday – 14+ Ppt, Psd Format Download nation's monetary mechanism gone wrong. Contradicting the received wisdom at Three Digit Addition Worksheets the time that they wrote, which held that money was a passive player in the events of the 1930s, Friedman and Schwartz argued that the contraction is in Complaint Letters fact a tragic testimonial to the importance of monetary forces [p. Addition Three Addition Worksheets. 300; all page references refer to Html Color Picker From Image,color.printable Pages, Friedman and Schwartz, 1963].
Friedman and Schwartz's account of the Addition Addition Three Worksheets Great Contraction is impressive in Holiday Powerpoint Free Ppt, its erudition and Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets development of historical detail, including the use of – 14+ Free Psd Format Download, many previously untapped primary sources. Worksheets Pdf & Digit Worksheets. But what is most important about the work, and Picker From Image,color.printable the reason that the book is Worksheets Three Addition as influential today as ever, is the authors' subtle use of Psd Format Download, history to disentangle complicated skeins of cause and effect--to solve what economists call the identification problem . Pdf & Addition Digit. A statistician studying data from the Formal Format - Template Great Depression would notice the basic fact that the Pdf & Addition money stock, output, and prices in the United States went down together in 1929 through 1933 and 2017 Printable Calendar Holidays, & Word up together in Worksheets Three Addition subsequent years. But these correlations cannot answer the Holiday Template Free Ppt, Psd Format Download crucial questions: What is causing what? Are changes in the money stock largely causing changes in prices and output, as Friedman and Schwartz were to conclude? Or, instead, is the stock of Addition Pdf & Addition Three, money reacting passively to changes in the state of economy? Or is there yet some other, unmeasured factor that is affecting all three variables? The special genius of the For Dinner Monetary History is the authors' use of Addition Addition Digit Addition Worksheets, what some today would call natural experiments--in this context, episodes in which money moves for reasons that are plausibly unrelated to Of A Resume. Example Good, the current state of the economy. Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets. By locating such episodes, then observing what subsequently occurred in the economy, Friedman and Picker From Coloring Pages Schwartz laboriously built the Worksheets Addition Three Addition Worksheets case that the causality can be interpreted as running (mostly) from money to Format, output and Pdf & Addition prices, so that the Great Depression can reasonably be described as having been caused by From Image,color.printable Coloring, monetary forces.
Of course, natural experiments are never perfectly controlled, so that no single natural experiment can be viewed as dispositive--hence the Addition Addition Worksheets importance of Friedman and Schwartz's historical analysis, which adduces a wide variety of such episodes and Format comparisons in support of their case. Addition Three Worksheets. I think the most useful thing I can do in the remainder of my talk today is to Format - Template, remind you of the genius of the Friedman-Schwartz methodology by reviewing some of their main examples and describing how they have held up in Pdf & Addition Three subsequent research. Invitation For Dinner. Four Monetary Policy Episodes. To reiterate, at Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit the heart of Career, Friedman and Addition Worksheets Addition Schwartz's identification strategy is the examination of Image,color.printable Coloring Free, historical periods in the attempt to identify changes in Addition Pdf & Addition Worksheets the money stock or in monetary policy that occurred for reasons largely unrelated to Formal Application, the contemporaneous behavior of output and Addition Three Addition Worksheets prices. To the Letters extent that these monetary changes can reasonably be construed as exogenous, one can interpret the response of the Addition economy to the changes as reflecting cause and effect--particularly if a similar pattern is found again and again. Invitation For Dinner. For the Addition Addition Three Addition early Depression era, Friedman and For Dinner | Cimvitation Schwartz identified at least four distinct episodes that seem to Worksheets Three Addition, meet these criteria. Three are tightenings of policy; one is a loosening. In each case, the economy responded in the way that the monetary theory of the Great Depression would predict. I will discuss each of these episodes briefly, both because they nicely illustrate the Friedman-Schwartz method and because they are interesting in Application - Template themselves. The first episode analyzed by Friedman and Schwartz was the deliberate tightening of monetary policy that began in the spring of Pdf & Addition, 1928 and continued until the Html Color Pages Free stock market crash of October 1929. This policy tightening occurred in conditions that we would not today normally consider conducive to Addition Pdf & Addition Three Addition, tighter money: As Friedman and Examples Of A Perfect Resume. Resume Good Schwartz noted, the business-cycle trough had only just been reached at the end of 1927 (the NBER's official trough date is November 1927), commodity prices were declining, and there was not the Pdf & Addition Addition slightest hint of Color From Image,color.printable Coloring, inflation.
2 Why then did the Addition Pdf & Addition Three Digit Federal Reserve tighten in Formal Format - Template early 1928? A principal reason was the Board's ongoing concern about Addition Pdf & Addition Digit Worksheets, speculation on Wall Street. The Federal Reserve had long made the distinction between productive and speculative uses of credit, and the rising stock market and the associated increases in bank loans to Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation, brokers were thus a major concern. 3 Benjamin Strong, the influential Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of Addition Pdf & Addition Digit, New York and Invitation | Cimvitation a key protagonist in Friedman and Worksheets Pdf & Addition Schwartz's narrative, had strong reservations about Holiday Free Ppt,, using monetary policy to try to arrest the Addition Worksheets stock market boom. Unfortunately, Strong was afflicted by chronic tuberculosis; his health was declining severely in Resume. Resume Example Good 1928 (he died in Pdf & October) and, with it, his influence in the Federal Reserve System. The antispeculative policy tightening of 1928-29 was affected to Pretentious Idea Resume Examples 6 12 Teen Resumes, some degree by Worksheets Pdf & Addition, the developing feud between Strong's successor at the New York Fed, George Harrison, and members of the Federal Reserve Board in Idea Resume Examples For Teens Teen Resumes Washington. Addition Worksheets Worksheets. In particular, the two sides disagreed on the best method for restraining brokers' loans: The Board favored so-called direct action, essentially a program of moral suasion, while Harrison thought that only Resume Teen High increases in Addition Three Addition Worksheets the discount rate (that is, the policy rate) would be effective. This debate was resolved in Html Color From Harrison's favor in 1929, and direct action was dropped in Pdf & Addition Three Addition Worksheets favor of Perfect, a further rate increase. Despite this sideshow and Worksheets Addition Three Addition Worksheets its effects on For Dinner | Cimvitation, the timing of Three Digit Worksheets, policy actions, it would be incorrect to infer that monetary policy was not tight during the dispute between Washington and New York.
As Friedman and Schwartz noted (p. 289), by July , the discount rate had been raised in New York to 5 per Pretentious Idea Resume Examples For Teens 6 12 cent, the highest since 1921, and the System's holdings of Addition Addition, government securities had been reduced to Invitation For Dinner, a level of over Worksheets Addition Addition $600 million at Color From Image,color.printable Coloring Pages Free the end of 1927 to Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets, $210 million by Template – 14+ Psd Format Download, August 1928, despite an outflow of gold. Hence this period represents a tightening in monetary policy not related to the current state of Worksheets Addition Addition, output and prices--a monetary policy innovation, in Examples Of A Perfect Resume today's statistical jargon. Moreover, Friedman and Schwartz went on Addition Three Digit, to point out that this tightening of policy was followed by falling prices and August 2017 Printable Calendar Excel weaker economic activity: During the Addition Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets two months from the cyclical peak in Project Studies August 1929 to Addition Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets, the crash, production, wholesale prices, and & Word personal income fell at annual rates of 20 per Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit Worksheets cent, 7-1/2 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively. Of course, once the crash occurred in October--the result, many students of the period have surmised, of Holiday Powerpoint Ppt, Psd Format Download, a slowing economy as much as any fundamental overvaluation--the economic decline became even more precipitous. Incidentally, the Addition Worksheets Three Digit Worksheets case that money was quite tight as early as the spring of 1928 has been strengthened by For Dinner, the subsequent work of Addition Worksheets Addition Three Addition, James Hamilton (1987). Hamilton showed that the Fed's desire to slow outflows of U.S. gold to Pretentious Idea Resume Examples For Teens Teen High, France--which under the leadership of Henri Poincar had recently stabilized its economy, thereby attracting massive flows of gold from abroad--further tightened U.S. monetary policy. Worksheets Three Digit Addition. The next episode studied by Project Studies, Friedman and Schwartz, another tightening, occurred in September 1931, following the sterling crisis.
In that month, a wave of speculative attacks on the pound forced Great Britain to Three, leave the gold standard. August Calendar Holidays,. Anticipating that the United States might be the Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets next to leave gold, speculators turned their attention from the Holiday Powerpoint Ppt, Psd Format pound to Three Digit Addition Worksheets, the dollar. Central banks and private investors converted a substantial quantity of dollar assets to gold in September and | Cimvitation October of 1931. Addition Addition Addition. The resulting outflow of Video - Bluevale Career, gold reserves (an external drain) also put pressure on the U.S. banking system (an internal drain), as foreigners liquidated dollar deposits and Worksheets Digit Addition Worksheets domestic depositors withdrew cash in Video Project Career Studies anticipation of additional bank failures. Conventional and long-established central banking practice would have mandated responses to both the external and internal drains, but the Worksheets Addition Three Federal Reserve--by this point having forsworn any responsibility for Invitation For Dinner the U.S. Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition. banking system, as I will discuss later--decided to respond only to the external drain. As Friedman and Schwarz wrote, The Federal Reserve System reacted vigorously and promptly to the external drain. . . Invitation For Dinner. . Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Worksheets. On October 9 , the August Printable Calendar Holidays, Excel Reserve Bank of New York raised its rediscount rate to 2-1/2 per cent, and on Addition Digit Addition, October 16, to 3-1/2 per Examples For Teens Teen High cent--the sharpest rise within so brief a period in Addition Pdf & Addition Three Worksheets the whole history of the | Cimvitation System, before or since (p. 317).
This action stemmed the outflow of gold but contributed to what Friedman and Schwartz called a spectacular increase in bank failures and bank runs, with 522 commercial banks closing their doors in Addition October alone. Examples Of A Perfect Resume.. The policy tightening and the ongoing collapse of the Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition banking system caused the money supply to fall precipitously, and the declines in 6 12 Teen Resumes High output and prices became even more virulent. Addition Worksheets Addition Three Digit. Again, the logic is that a monetary policy change related to objectives other than the Examples Of A Resume. Perfect Resume Example Good Resume domestic economy--in this case, defense of the dollar against external attack--were followed by changes in Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets domestic output and 2017 Holidays, Excel prices in the predicted direction. One might object that the Addition Pdf & Addition Three Addition Worksheets two experiments described so far were both episodes of monetary contraction. Examples Perfect Resume. Example. Hence, although they suggest that declining output and prices followed these tight-money policies, the evidence is perhaps not entirely persuasive. The possibility remains that the Addition Three Addition Great Depression occurred for other reasons and Invitation | Cimvitation that the Worksheets Pdf & Worksheets contractionary monetary policies merely coincided with (or perhaps, slightly worsened) the ongoing declines in Perfect Resume. Perfect Resume Example the economy. Worksheets Pdf & Addition Worksheets. Hence it is particularly interesting that the third episode studied by Examples Perfect Resume Good, Friedman and Schwartz is an Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Worksheets expansionary episode. Video Career. This third episode occurred in Addition Three Addition April 1932, when the Congress began to Formal Application - Template, exert considerable pressure on Digit Addition, the Fed to ease monetary policy, in | Cimvitation particular, to conduct large-scale open-market purchases of Worksheets Addition Digit Addition Worksheets, securities. The Board was quite reluctant; but between April and June 1932, it did authorize substantial purchases. This infusion of Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation, liquidity appreciably slowed the decline in the stock of money and significantly brought down yields on Addition Worksheets Pdf &, government bonds, corporate bonds, and commercial paper.
Most interesting, as Friedman and For Dinner Schwartz noted (p. Addition Addition Worksheets. 324), [t]he tapering off of the Pretentious decline in Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Digit Addition the stock of money and the beginning of the Html Color Picker Free purchase program were followed shortly by an equally notable change in Worksheets Addition Addition the general economic indicator. . . . Wholesale prices started rising in July, production in August. Personal income continued to fall but at a much reduced rate. Factory employment, railroad ton-miles, and numerous other indicators of Powerpoint – 14+ Free Download, physical activity tell a similar story. All in Addition Digit Addition Worksheets all, as in Project - Bluevale Career early 1931, the data again have many of the earmarks of Addition Pdf & Three Worksheets, a cyclical revival. . Invitation For Dinner. . . Burns and Worksheets Pdf & Addition Digit Worksheets Mitchell (1946), although dating the trough in Pretentious Idea Examples 6 12 Teen Resumes High March 1933, refer to the period as an example of Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets, a 'double bottom.' Unfortunately, although a few Fed officials supported the open-market purchase program, notably George Harrison at the New York Fed, most did not consider the policy to be appropriate. In particular, as argued by Examples Perfect Resume. Resume Good, several modern scholars, they took the mistaken view that low nominal interest rates were indicative of Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Addition, monetary ease. Hence, when the Congress adjourned on July 16, 1932, the System essentially ended the Complaint Letters program.
By the latter part of the year, the Addition Pdf & Addition economy had relapsed dramatically. The final episode studied by Invitation | Cimvitation, Friedman and Schwartz, again contractionary in impact, occurred in Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition the period from January 1933 to Formal Application, the banking holiday in Pdf & Addition Worksheets March. This time the exogenous factor might be taken to be the long lag mandated by the Constitution between the Video - Bluevale election and the inauguration of a new U.S. Addition Digit Addition. President. Complaint Letters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, elected in Addition Worksheets November 1932, was not to take office until March 1933. In the interim, of course, considerable speculation circulated about the new President's likely policies; the Complaint Letters uncertainty was increased by the President-elect's refusal to make definite policy statements or to Addition Worksheets Addition Three, endorse actions proposed by the increasingly frustrated President Hoover. However, from the Html Color Picker From Coloring Pages President-elect's campaign statements and known propensities, many inferred (correctly) that Roosevelt might devalue the Addition Three Digit Addition dollar or even break the Pretentious Idea Resume Resumes High link with gold entirely. Fearing the resulting capital losses, both domestic and foreign investors began to convert dollars to gold, putting pressure on both the banking system and the gold reserves of the Federal Reserve System. Bank failures and Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit the Fed's defensive measures against the gold drain further reduced the stock of Holiday Template – 14+ Free Ppt, Psd Format Download, money. The economy took its deepest plunge between November 1932 and Addition Pdf & Three Worksheets March 1933, once more confirming the temporal sequence predicted by Idea Resume For Teens High, the monetary hypothesis.
Once Roosevelt was sworn in, his declaration of Pdf & Digit Addition, a national bank holiday and, subsequently, his cutting the link between the Invitation dollar and gold initiated the Worksheets Addition Three Digit expansion of Career, money, prices, and Worksheets Three Digit Addition Worksheets output. It is an Psd Format Download interesting but not uncommon phenomenon in economics that the expectation of Addition Worksheets Digit, a devaluation can be highly destabilizing but that the devaluation itself can be beneficial. For Dinner. These four episodes might be considered as time series examples of Addition Worksheets Pdf & Digit Addition, Friedman and Schwartz's evidence for Powerpoint Free the role of monetary forces in the Depression. Addition Worksheets Addition Three Addition Worksheets. They are not the Letters entirety of the evidence, however. Addition Pdf & Addition Three Digit. Friedman and Schwartz also introduced cross-sectional--that is, cross-country--evidence as well.
This cross-sectional evidence is based on differences in exchange-rate regimes across countries in Invitation the 1930s. Addition Worksheets Addition Three. The Gold Standard and Examples Of A Perfect Example Good Resume the International Depression. Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three. Although the Monetary History focuses by For Dinner, design on Digit Worksheets, events in the United States, some of its most compelling insights come from Complaint cross-sectional evidence. Anticipating a large academic literature of the 1980s and Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit Addition 1990s, Friedman and Schwartz recognized in Complaint 1963 that a comparison of the economic performances in the 1930s of Worksheets Addition, countries with different monetary regimes could also serve as a test for their monetary hypothesis. Resume. Perfect Resume. Facilitating the cross-sectional natural experiment was the fact that the Worksheets Pdf & Digit Worksheets international gold standard, which had been suspended during World War I, was laboriously rebuilt during the 1920s (in a somewhat modified form called the Template, Holidays, & Word gold-exchange standard). Countries that adhered to Addition Pdf & Three Digit, the international gold standard were essentially required to maintain a fixed exchange rate with other gold-standard countries. Moreover, because the United States was the dominant economy on the gold standard during this period (with some competition from Ppt, Psd Format France), countries adhering to the gold standard were forced to Addition Addition Three, match the contractionary monetary policies and price deflation being experienced in Complaint Letters the United States. Importantly for identification purposes, however, the Pdf & Addition gold standard was not adhered to uniformly as the Depression proceeded. A few countries for historical or political reasons never joined the Resume. Perfect Resume Example Good Resume gold standard. Others were forced off early, because of Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three, factors such as internal politics, weak domestic banking conditions, and Application Format the local influence of competing economic doctrines. Addition Worksheets Addition. Other countries, notably France and the other members of the so-called Gold Bloc, had a strong ideological commitment to gold and therefore remained on the gold standard as long as possible.
Friedman and August 2017 Template, Holidays, Excel & Word Schwartz's insight was that, if monetary contraction was in Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three fact the source of economic depression, then countries tightly constrained by Holiday Powerpoint Template Free Psd Format Download, the gold standard to follow the Worksheets Digit United States into deflation should have suffered relatively more severe economic downturns. Although not conducting a formal statistical analysis, Friedman and Invitation | Cimvitation Schwartz gave a number of salient examples to Worksheets Addition Digit Addition, show that the more tightly constrained a country was by Color Coloring Pages, the gold standard (and, by Worksheets Three Digit Addition, default, the more closely bound to follow U.S. Application Format - Template. monetary policies), the more severe were both its monetary contraction and Addition Three Digit Addition its declines in prices and Project - Bluevale output. One can read their discussion as dividing countries into four categories. Addition Digit. The first category consisted of countries that did not adhere to Of A Perfect Resume. Perfect Example Good, the gold standard at all or perhaps adhered only Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets very briefly. The example cited by Friedman and Color Picker Image,color.printable Coloring Schwartz was China. As they wrote (p. 361), China was on Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Worksheets, a silver rather than a gold standard.
As a result, it had the equivalent of - Template, a floating exchange rate with respect to Worksheets Pdf & Addition, gold-standard countries. A decline in the gold price of Calendar & Word, silver had the Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three same effect as a depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the Chinese yuan. The effect was to insulate Chinese internal economic conditions from the worldwide depression. . . . And that is what happened. - Bluevale Career Studies. From 1929 to 1931, China was hardly affected internally by the holocaust that was sweeping the gold-standard world, just as in Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Addition Worksheets 1920-21, Germany had been insulated by her hyperinflation and Powerpoint Free Ppt, Download associated floating exchange rate. Addition Three Digit Addition. Subsequent research (for example, Choudhri and Kochin, 1980) has identified other countries that, like China, did not adhere to - Template, the gold standard and hence escaped the worst of the Worksheets Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets Depression. Two examples are Spain, where the internal instability that ultimately led to August 2017 Printable Holidays, Excel & Word, the Spanish Civil War prevented the country from re-adopting the Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Addition gold standard in Perfect Resume. Perfect Resume Good the 1920s, and Addition Worksheets Addition Three Digit Addition Japan, which was forced from the gold standard after being on it for Printable Excel & Word only a matter of months. The Depression in Worksheets Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets Spain was quite mild, and Japan experienced a powerful recovery almost immediately after abandoning its short-lived experiment with gold. The second category consisted of Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation, countries that had restored the gold standard in the 1920s but abandoned it early in the Depression, typically in the fall of 1931. As Friedman and Schwartz observed (p. Addition Worksheets. 362), the first major country to leave the gold standard was Great Britain, which was forced off gold in September 1931. Of A Perfect Resume. Resume Example Good. Several trading partners, among them the Scandinavian countries, followed Britain's lead almost immediately.
The effect of leaving gold was to free domestic monetary policy and to stop the monetary contraction. Addition Three Addition Worksheets. What was the consequence of this relaxed pressure on Of A Perfect Resume Resume, the money stock? Friedman and Schwartz noted (p. Worksheets Pdf & Digit Worksheets. 362) that [t]he trough of the depression in Britain and the other countries that accompanied Britain in leaving gold was reached in the third quarter of 1932. [In contrast, i]n the countries that remained on Pretentious Idea Resume Examples 6 12 Teen Resumes, the gold standard or, like Canada, that went only part way with Britain, the Addition Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets Depression dragged on. Color Picker Coloring. Third were countries that remained on gold but had ample reserves or were attracting gold inflows. The key example was France (see p. Digit. 362), the leader of the Gold Bloc. For Dinner | Cimvitation. After its stabilization in Addition Digit Addition 1928, France attracted gold reserves well out of proportion to Html Picker From Free, the size of its economy.
France's gold inflows allowed it to Addition Three Addition Worksheets, maintain its money supply and Color Picker Coloring Pages Free avoid a serious downturn until 1932. However, at Addition Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets that point, France's liquidation of non-gold foreign exchange reserves and Video Project Career its banking problems began to Addition Pdf & Addition Three Digit, offset the Formal Application continuing gold inflows, reducing the Addition Pdf & Addition Worksheets French money stock. Examples Perfect Resume. A serious deflation and declines in output began in Worksheets Addition Worksheets France, which, as Friedman and Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation Schwartz pointed out, did not reach its trough until April 1935, much later than Great Britain and other countries that left gold early. Fourth, and perhaps the worst hit, were countries that rejoined the gold standard but had very low gold reserves and Pdf & Addition Three banking systems seriously weakened by World War I and the ensuing hyperinflations. Friedman and Schwartz mention Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Romania as examples of Powerpoint Template Free Ppt, Psd Format, this category (p. 361). Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition. These countries suffered not only Video Career Studies deflation but also extensive banking and Addition Pdf & Addition Addition financial crises, making their plunge into August Template, Holidays, & Word, depression particularly precipitous. The powerful identification achieved by this categorization of countries by Friedman and Pdf & Addition Worksheets Schwartz is worth reemphasizing. If the Depression had been the product primarily of nonmonetary forces, such as changes in autonomous spending or in productivity, then the nominal exchange rate regime chosen by each country would have been largely irrelevant.
The close connection among countries' exchange rate regimes, their monetary policies, and the behavior of domestic prices and output, is Project - Bluevale strong evidence for the proposition that monetary forces played a central role not just in the U.S. Addition Digit Addition Worksheets. depression but in Invitation | Cimvitation the world as a whole. Pdf & Addition Three Worksheets. Of course, those familiar with more recent work on Printable Calendar Template, Holidays, Excel & Word, the Great Depression will recognize that Friedman and Schwartz's idea of categorizing countries by exchange rate regime has been widely extended by subsequent researchers. Notably, in the paper that revived Friedman and Schwartz's temporarily dormant insight, Choudhri and Kochin (1980) considered the Pdf & Addition Addition relative performances of Invitation | Cimvitation, Spain (which, as mentioned, did not adopt the gold standard), three Scandinavian countries (which left gold with Great Britain in September 1931), and four countries that remained part of the French-led Gold Bloc (the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Poland). They found that the countries that remained on Addition Three Addition Worksheets, gold suffered much more severe contractions in output and prices than the Resume For Teens 6 12 Teen countries leaving gold. Three. In a highly influential paper, Eichengreen and Sachs (1985) examined a number of key macro variables for ten major countries over 1929-35, finding that countries that left gold earlier also recovered earlier. Format. Bernanke and Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets James (1991) confirmed the findings of Eichengreen and Sachs for | Cimvitation a broader sample of twenty-four (mostly industrialized) countries (see also Bernanke and Carey, 1996), and Campa (1990) did the same for a sample of Latin American countries. Bernanke (1995) showed that not only did adherence to the gold standard predict deeper and more extended depression, as had been noted by earlier authors, but also that the behavior of Addition Pdf & Three Addition Worksheets, various key macro variables, such as real wages and real interest rates, differed across gold-standard and 2017 Printable Calendar Template, Excel non-gold-standard countries in Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three just the Holiday Powerpoint – 14+ Free Ppt, way one would expect if the driving shocks were monetary in nature. The most detailed narrative discussion of Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets, how the Application gold standard propagated the Depression around the world is, of course, the Pdf & Addition Three influential book by Idea Resume Examples For Teens Resumes, Eichengreen (1992). Eichengreen (2002) reviews the conclusions of his book and concludes largely that they are quite compatible with the Worksheets Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets Friedman and Schwartz approach.
The Role of Bank Failures. Html Color From. Yet another striking feature of the Worksheets Pdf & Worksheets Great Contraction in Letters the United States was the massive extent of banking panics and failures, culminating in the Bank Holiday of March 1933, in which the Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Addition entire U.S. Formal Application Format. banking system was shut down. Three Addition Worksheets. During the From Free Depression decade, something close to Addition Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets, half of all U.S. commercial banks either failed or merged with other banks. Friedman and Schwartz take the unusually severe and Idea For Teens Teen protracted U.S. banking panic as yet another opportunity to apply their identification methodology. Addition Pdf & Addition Three Digit. Their argument, in Video Project - Bluevale short, is Addition Worksheets Addition that under institutional arrangements that existed before the establishment of the Federal Reserve, bank failures of the scale of Formal - Template, those in 1929-33 would not have occurred, even in Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets an economic downturn as severe as that in the Depression. For doctrinal and Formal Application - Template institutional reasons to Addition Pdf & Worksheets, be detailed in a moment, however, the extraordinary spate of bank failures did occur and led in turn to the massive extinction of bank deposits and an abnormally large decline in 2017 Template, Holidays, Excel & Word the stock of money. Because the decline in Addition Worksheets money induced by bank panics would not have occurred under previous regimes, Friedman and Schwartz argued, it can be treated as partially exogenous and Idea Resume For Teens Teen Resumes High thus a potential cause of the extraordinary declines in Addition Three Digit Addition output and prices that followed. Before the creation of the Printable Calendar Template, Holidays, Excel Federal Reserve, Friedman and Schwartz noted, bank panics were typically handled by banks themselves--for example, through urban consortiums of private banks called clearinghouses. If a run on one or more banks in Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Worksheets a city began, the clearinghouse might declare a suspension of payments, meaning that, temporarily, deposits would not be convertible into cash. Larger, stronger banks would then take the lead, first, in Of A Perfect Resume Good determining that the banks under attack were in fact fundamentally solvent, and second, in lending cash to Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Worksheets, those banks that needed to meet withdrawals. Though not an entirely satisfactory solution--the suspension of Pretentious For Teens Teen, payments for several weeks was a significant hardship for Addition Worksheets Three the public--the system of suspension of payments usually prevented local banking panics from - Template spreading or persisting (Gorton and Mullineaux, 1987).
Large, solvent banks had an incentive to Digit Addition Worksheets, participate in Resume For Teens 6 12 High curing panics because they knew that an unchecked panic might ultimately threaten their own deposits. It was in large part to improve the management of banking panics that the Federal Reserve was created in Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Worksheets 1913. However, as Friedman and Schwartz discuss in some detail, in Examples Perfect Resume. Perfect Example the early 1930s the Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Digit Worksheets Federal Reserve did not serve that function. Of A Perfect Resume. Resume Good. The problem within the Addition Worksheets Digit Addition Worksheets Fed was largely doctrinal: Fed officials appeared to subscribe to Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon's infamous 'liquidationist' thesis, that weeding out Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation, weak banks was a harsh but necessary prerequisite to the recovery of the banking system. Moreover, most of the Pdf & Three Digit Addition failing banks were small banks (as opposed to what we would now call money-center banks) and Examples Of A Perfect Perfect Resume Example Good Resume not members of the Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Federal Reserve System. Thus the Examples Of A Resume Fed saw no particular need to try to stem the panics. At the same time, the large banks--which would have intervened before the founding of the Fed--felt that protecting their smaller brethren was no longer their responsibility.
Indeed, since the large banks felt confident that the Fed would protect them if necessary, the weeding out of small competitors was a positive good, from their point of view. Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Worksheets. In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and - Bluevale Career widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn. Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Addition. Bank failures and depositor withdrawals greatly reduced the quantity of bank deposits, consequently reducing the money supply. The result, they argued, was greater deflation and output decline than would have otherwise occurred. A couple of objections can be raised to the Friedman-Schwartz inference. Color Picker From Pages. One logical possibility is Pdf & Addition Digit Worksheets that the Examples Resume Good Resume extraordinary rate of bank failure of the Addition Pdf & Addition 1930s, rather than causing the subsequent declines in Application output and prices, occurred because depositors and Addition Digit others anticipated the collapse of the economy--that is, that the banking panics were endogenous to the expected state of the Letters economy. Friedman and Schwartz's institutional arguments persuade me that this is Addition Worksheets Addition Digit unlikely. If previous arrangements had been in Pretentious Idea 6 12 Resumes place, bank panics would not have been allowed to progress to Pdf & Addition Worksheets, the degree they did, independent of the severity of the downturn. Moreover, I don't find it plausible that, in 1930 and 1931, depositors and Formal Application - Template bankers fully anticipated the severity of the downturn still to Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit Worksheets, come. A second possibility is 2017 Printable Template, Holidays, & Word that banking panics contributed to the collapse of output and prices through nonmonetary mechanisms. My own early work (Bernanke, 1983) argued that the effective closing down of the banking system might have had an adverse impact by creating impediments to the normal intermediation of credit, as well as by reducing the quantity of transactions media.
Friedman and Schwartz anticipated this argument and adduced as contrary evidence a comparison of the United States and Canada (p. 352). Pdf & Three Digit Addition. They pointed out that (1) Canada's monetary policy was tied to that of the United States by Html Color Coloring Pages, a fixed exchange rate; (2) Canada had no significant bank failures; but (3) Canada's output declines were as severe as those of the Pdf & Addition United States. Pretentious Idea Resume Examples For Teens Resumes. Friedman and Schwartz concluded that Canada's economy declined because of its enforced monetary contraction--whether that monetary contraction took place through bank failures or was enforced by Addition Addition, the exchange-rate regime was immaterial. I would argue that Canada, both being a commodity exporter and being unusually highly integrated with the For Dinner | Cimvitation United States, may not have been fully representative of the experience of all countries in Worksheets Three the 1930s. Complaint. For example, in Bernanke (1995, table 3), I showed using a sample of Worksheets Three Digit Addition, twenty-six countries that, with the exchange-rate regime held constant, countries suffering severe banking panics had subsequent declines in output that were significantly worse than those in countries with stable banking systems. This result supports the possibility of an Video Project - Bluevale Career Studies additional, nonmonetary channel for bank failures. At the same time, my results were also strongly supportive of the view that adherence to Addition Pdf & Addition, the gold standard, and the associated monetary contraction, was of Format - Template, first-order importance in explaining which countries suffered severe depressions.
Thus, as I have always tried to Three Digit, make clear, my argument for Free Ppt, Psd Format Download nonmonetary influences of bank failures is simply an embellishment of the Worksheets Addition Addition Worksheets Friedman-Schwartz story; it in no way contradicts the basic logic of their analysis. Benjamin Strong and Video - Bluevale Career the Leadership Vacuum. Finally, what is probably Friedman and Schwartz's most controversial natural experiment stems from the premature death, in 1928, of America's preeminent central banker, Benjamin Strong. Strong, who was Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the de facto equivalent to a Fed Chairman today, had led the Federal Reserve throughout the Pdf & Addition Digit Addition 1920s. Career. Aptly named, he had a strong personality and Addition Addition Digit was a brilliant central banker. Quite plausibly, his personality and skills created a leadership position within a Federal Reserve System that--as suggested by its name--was intended by the Congress to be a relatively decentralized institution.
After Strong's death, as Friedman and For Dinner | Cimvitation Schwartz describe in useful detail, the Federal Reserve no longer had an Pdf & Addition Digit Addition Worksheets effective leader or even a well-established chain of command. Members of the Board in Washington, jealous of the traditional powers of the Invitation Federal Reserve Bank of Addition Addition Digit, New York, strove for greater influence; and Strong's successor, George Harrison, did not have the experience or personality to stop them. Picker From Pages. Regional banks also began to Three Addition Worksheets, assert themselves more. Thus, power became diffused; worse, what power there was accrued to men who did not understand central banking from Resume For Teens 6 12 Teen Resumes a national and Addition Pdf & Addition Digit international point of view, as Strong had. The leadership vacuum and the generally low level of central banking expertise in the Federal Reserve System was a major problem that led to | Cimvitation, excessive passivity and many poor decisions by Pdf & Addition Addition Worksheets, the Fed in Examples Perfect Resume Example Good the years after Strong's death.
Friedman and Worksheets Pdf & Addition Three Digit Addition Schwartz argued in 2017 Printable Holidays, their book that if Strong had lived, many of the mistakes of the Addition Worksheets Pdf & Addition Great Depression would have been avoided. This proposition has been highly controversial and Printable Calendar Excel & Word has led to Pdf & Three Digit Addition Worksheets, detailed examinations of what Strong's views really were on various matters of monetary policymaking. Application - Template. This counterfactual debate somewhat misses the Addition point, in my opinion. We don't know what would have happened had Strong lived; but what we do know is that the central bank of the Html Color Picker Image,color.printable Coloring Pages world's economically most important nation in 1929 was essentially leaderless and lacking in expertise. This situation led to decisions, or nondecisions, which might well not have occurred under either better leadership or a more centralized institutional structure. And associated with these decisions, we observe a massive collapse of money, prices, and output. Addition Worksheets Pdf & Digit Worksheets. Thus, it seems to me that the Examples Of A Resume Example Good Resume death of Addition Addition Worksheets, Strong does qualify as one more natural experiment with which to try to identify the Pretentious Idea Examples For Teens 6 12 Resumes High effects of Addition Worksheets Addition Digit Addition, monetary forces in the Great Depression. The brilliance of Pretentious Idea Resume For Teens, Friedman and Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Addition Schwartz's work on the Great Depression is Examples Perfect Resume not simply the Addition Worksheets Pdf & Worksheets texture of the Holiday Free Psd Format discussion or the coherence of the point of view.
Their work was among the Pdf & Digit Addition Worksheets first to use history to address seriously the issues of cause and Letters effect in a complex economic system, the problem of Pdf & Addition Three Addition, identification. Perhaps no single one of their natural experiments alone is convincing; but together, and Template – 14+ Psd Format Download enhanced by the subsequent research of Digit Addition, dozens of scholars, they make a powerful case indeed. For practical central bankers, among which I now count myself, Friedman and Schwartz's analysis leaves many lessons. Complaint. What I take from their work is the idea that monetary forces, particularly if unleashed in a destabilizing direction, can be extremely powerful. Worksheets Addition. The best thing that central bankers can do for the world is to Color Picker Coloring Pages Free, avoid such crises by Pdf & Three, providing the economy with, in Milton Friedman's words, a stable monetary background--for example as reflected in low and stable inflation. Application - Template. Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit Addition Worksheets official representative of the For Dinner | Cimvitation Federal Reserve. I would like to Addition Worksheets Pdf & Digit Addition, say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the For Dinner | Cimvitation Great Depression. Addition Pdf & Addition Addition. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
Best wishes for your next ninety years. Career. 1. Accordingly, I hope the reader will forgive the many references to Worksheets Pdf & Three Worksheets, my own work in the list of references below. They arise because much of Idea Examples For Teens, my own research has followed up leads from the Friedman-Schwartz agenda. Return to text. 2. However, as Athanasios Orphanides pointed out to me, by 1929 the rate of Worksheets Digit Worksheets, output growth was strong, which may have provided additional motivation for Formal Application - Template a tightening. Return to text. 3. Three Addition. Apparently the Board was not entirely clear on For Teens 6 12 High, the point that funds used to purchase stock are not made unavailable for Addition Addition Three Worksheets productive use. Of course, as stock sales are merely transfers of existing assets, funds used to purchase stock are not dissipated but only – 14+ Download transferred from Addition Worksheets Addition Worksheets one person to another.
Return to Complaint Letters, text. Bernanke, Ben, Non-Monetary Effects of the Addition Digit Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression, American Economic Review , 1983, 257-76. Formal - Template. Bernanke, Ben, The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 1995, 1-28. Bernanke, Ben, and Addition Worksheets Pdf & Three Digit Addition Worksheets Kevin Carey, Nominal Wage Stickiness and Html Color Picker From Coloring Pages Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression, Quarterly Journal of Economics , 1996, 853-83. Addition Worksheets. Bernanke, Ben, and Harold James, The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation the Great Depression: An International Comparison, in Addition Three Worksheets R. Glenn Hubbard, Financial Markets and Invitation For Dinner | Cimvitation Financial Crises , Chicago: University of Addition Three Digit Worksheets, Chicago Press for NBER, 1991. Burns, Arthur F. and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles , New York: National Bureau of Letters, Economic Research, 1946.
Campa, Jose Manuel, Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to Latin America, Journal of Economic History , 1990, 6177-82. Choudhri, Ehsan, and Addition Pdf & Addition Three Worksheets Levis Kochin, The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycles: Some Evidence from the Holiday Powerpoint Template – 14+ Free Ppt, Download Great Depression, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 1980, 565-74. Addition Worksheets Addition Worksheets. Eichengreen, Barry, Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression , 1919-1939, New York: Oxford University Press, 1992. Eichengreen, Barry, Still Fettered after All These Years, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 9276, October 2002. Eichengreen, Barry, and Jeffrey Sachs, Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in Complaint the 1930s, Journal of Economic History , 1985, 925-46. Friedman, Milton and Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1863-1960 , Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963.
Gorton, Gary, and Donald J. Mullineaux, The Joint Production of Confidence: Endogenous Regulation and Nineteenth-Century Commercial Bank Clearinghouses, Journal of Addition Addition Digit, Money, Credit, and Application Banking, 1987 , 457-68. Hamilton, James D., Monetary Factors in the Great Depression, Journal of Monetary Economics , 1987, 145-69.
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